2007 Federal Election Briefing #2

Overview

• In the critical bell weather Division of Dobell the sitting Liberal Ken Ticehurst will face high profile union official and ALP right winger Craig Thomson
• The Coalition holds ten seats in Queensland with a margin of less that 10% and another four seats with margins between 10% and 11% which makes the political infighting in the Queensland Division of the Liberal Party, plus retirement of three sitting Liberal MPs of such interest.
• An ALP Government will be able to call a Double Dissolution election in 2009 to resolve the confrontation with Coalition controlled Senate and to achieve its legislative program. But this is unlikely in 2008 for both practical and electoral reasons.

Key Milestones in 2007

To further aid consideration of the political and electoral landscape over the rest of 2007 the following will be key dates.

April 27-29 ALP National Conference - Sydney
Tuesday 9 May Federal Budget
31 May Report of the PM’s joint government-business Task Group on Emissions Trading
June Liberal Party Federal Council - Sydney
Saturday 4 August Earliest date for the election
2 - 9 September APEC - Sydney hosted by PM John Howard
14-16 September Nationals Federal Council meeting Canberra
29-30 September AFL & NRL Grand Finals
Tuesday 6 November Melbourne Cup
Saturday 15 December Latest date for the election .

The ALP will be hoping for a “good” national conference to provide momentum to carry them over the Federal Budget. On the other hand the Coalition Government will be expecting Treasurer Costello to deliver a Federal Budget that acts as a circulate breaker and gives them the momentum to run to the election with the voters focused on economic management and tax, gather than Kevin Rudd. Note the timing of the PM’s climate change report which will seek to build on the momentum of the Budget to neutralise an ALP advantage.

Federal Division of Dobell - Profile

The federal electoral division of Dobell, on the Central Coast of NSW includes areas of Wyong Shire and Gosford City Council. The main towns include Bateau Bay, Berkeley Vale, Blue Haven, Gorokan, Ourimbah, The Entrance, Wamberal, Warnervale, Wyoming, Wyong and the Yarramalong Valley . The voters of Dobell either work on the Central Coast or commute to Sydney down the Pacific Highway or by rail. It is a key out metropolitan area with many “aspirational voters”.

Dobell is a seat the ALP must regain to return to Government. It is the bell weather seat on the Mackerras pendulum.

The current member is Ken Ticehust, who was first elected to the Federal Parliament in 2001 for the Liberal Party, then re-elected in 2004. A backbencher, he is the Chair of the Coalition Backbench Health Committee and a favourite of the pharmaceutical lobby. He has held the seat despite determined efforts from the NSW ALP right wing. NSW Minister & power broker John Della Bosca and his wife Belinda Neal are active in the ALP in the area, with attempts to pre-select Belinda after she left the Senate.

As an electrical engineer by training Ken Ticehurst once made a living out of tracking lightening for insurance agents and rural bush fire brigades. During the 2004 election campaign the lightening was the Federal Government’s Regional Partnerships programme $1.5million in funding for the Tumbi Creek dredging project. It was then reported that the creek dredged itself in a flood without a cent being necessary.

The ALP candidate is likely to be Craig Thomson who is the National Secretary of the Health Services Union (HSU). He is a promient member of the ALP right-wing and was a public critic of the Crean leadership. He has also be active in the local community serving on a committee to develop a Health Strategy for the Hunter. The HSU is opposed to the privatisation of Medibank and has been part of the ongoing ACTU campaign against “WorkChoices”.

At the 2004 election, Ticehurst received a swing of over 5.5% from the ALP on a two party preferred basis thereby making it harder for the ALP to win. Following the recent NSW redistribution the seat has become slightly easier to win for the ALP with Mackerras calculating the margin as 4.8% and is therefore a key Liberal marginal seat.

House of Representatives

The ALP currently only holds six of 29 seats in Queensland. The Coalition seats to watch in Queensland, are as follows ranked from most marginal to safest (following the recent redistribution):

QUEENSLAND - Coalition Held Seats
Division	Margin %	Member	Party	ALP Candidate	Comment
Bonner	0.6	Ross Vasta	LP	Ms Kerry Rea	Currently under investigation by Federal Police
Moreton	2.8	Gary Hardgrave	LP	Graham Perrett	Currently under investigation by Federal Police
Blair	5.7	Cameron Thompson	LP	Shayne Neumann	Former Queensland Liberal parliamentary adviser
Herbert	6.1	Peter Lindsay	LP	George Colbran	Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Defence
Longman	6.6	Mal Brough	LP	Jon Sullivan	Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
Wright	7.9	New electorate
Petrie	7.9	Teresa Gambaro	LP	Yvette D’Ath	Assistant Minister for Immigration and Citizenship
Hinkler	8.8	Paul Neville	NP	Garry Parr	Chair Backbench Communications and Arts Committee
Bowman	8.9	Andrew Laming	LP	Jason Young	Currently under investigation by Federal Police
Dickson	9.1	Peter Dutton	LP		Minister for Revenue and Assistant Treasurer
Dawson	10.2	De-Anne Kelly	NP	James Bidgood	Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for Transport and Regional Service
Leichhardt	10.3	Warren Entsch	LP	Jim Turnour	Warren Entsch is retiring at the next election

Ryan	10.4	Michael Johnson	LP	Ross Daniels
Kennedy	10.5	Bob Katter	Ind	Alan Neilan

To form Government, the ALP needs a uniform national swing of 4.8% and to hold all its current seats.

An opinion poll late March early April by the Sunday Mail in Brisbane found that the federal Labor Party held a comfortable 14 point lead over the coalition on a two-party preferred basis. The poll of 504 voters found support for the ALP to be at 57 per cent compared to the Coalition's 43 per cent.

This polling reflects the impact of at least four factors:

· Queenslander Kevin Rudd is leading the ALP;

· Senator Santo Santoro’s resignation following his undeclared share trading scandal;

· The ongoing police investigation into three Queensland Liberal MPs, Andrew Laming, Ross Vasta and Gary Hardgrave, for alleged rorting of taxpayer-funded electoral allowances; and

· The deplorable state of the Liberal Party at a state level with a recent round of leadership speculation.

It should also be noted that three sitting Queensland Liberal MPs will retire at the next election.

The Senate - Possible Double Dissolution Election in 2009

As in the last Federal Election Briefing, if the ALP is elected to Government at the federal election it could confront a 1975 style constitutional crisis with the Coalition in control of the Senate. While an early election in 2008 is constitutionally possible it is neither electorally or practically possible.

The constitutional requirements under Section 57 of the Constitution for creating a double dissolution trigger are as follows.

· The House of Representatives passes a bill and sends it to the Senate.

· The Senate rejects it, or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House does not agree.

· Three months must then elapse, from the time the Senate acts (or fails to act).

· The House of Representatives passes the bill again (with or without Senate amendments).

· The Senate again rejects the bill, or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House does not agree. Note that the Government of the day may decide to stockpile legislation if it wishes.

· The Prime Minister is can then seek the dissolution of parliament at a time of his choosing, provided it is not within 6 months of a election for the House of Representatives being held.

· If a double dissolution election is called (and just because the trigger exists there is no requirement that the election be a double dissolution election) all the Senators face election at the same time.

· Following the election the bill may again be introduced. And if the Senate fails to pass it a joint sitting of the two Houses can be convened to vote on the bill or bills.

Of course the legislation must be prepared and drafted which in the case of possibly complex legislation to repeal and replace “WorkChoices” will not be a short process and may take between six and twelve months before it is introduced. Parliamentary consideration can take equally as long with Senate Committee inquiries etc taking months to consider such legislation. Note that referring a bill to a Committee is not tantamount to failing to pass. Therefore the practical implications is that it is likely that a Coalition dominated Senate will only reject for a second time a Bill replacing “WorkChoices” in late 2008.

The electoral consideration against a double dissolution election in 2008 is that voters as a general rule don’t like voting often, preferring Governments to govern.

The benefits of a double dissolution election are that the quota to be elected s halved and all Senators face the people making it possible to neutralise any Party’s numerical advantage in the Chamber. Of course at the following joint sitting the legislation can be passed as the Whitlam Government did in 1973.

A double dissolution election is likely in 2009 if the Coalition prevents an ALP Government from implementing key legislative reforms by rejecting Bills in the Senate. Rejecting abolishing “WorkChoices” will be difficult for the Coalition as a Rudd Government will be able to claim a mandate given the high profile the issue will have in any election campaign.

Opinion Polls

The ALP and Kevin Rudd continue to hold very significant (and probably unrealistic) leads. In fact the first poll of April may indicate a touch of reality as the results levelled off.